Research

Publications

2021

Socio-Economic Status and Inequalities in Children’s IQ and Economic Preferences, P. Pinger, T. Deckers, A. Falk, F. Kosse, and H. Schildberg-Hörisch, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 129, No. 9.

Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk, M. Schularick, L. ter Steege and F. Ward, American Economic Review: Insights, Vol. 3 (No. 2): pp. 199-214.

Your failure is my opportunity – Effects of elimination in contests, Moritz Mendel, Ferdinand Pieroth and Christian Seel, Journal of Mathematical Economics, Paper 102495.

Worker Churn in the Cross Section and Over Time: New Evidence from Germany, R. Bachmann, C. Bayer, C. Merkl, S. Seth, H. Stüber, and F. Wellschmied, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, pp. 781-797.

 

2020

Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk, I. Schnabel with M. Brunnermeier and S. Rother, The Review of Financial Studies.

Inheritance Taxation and Wealth Effects on the Labor Supply of Heirs, F. Kindermann with Lukas Mayr and Dominik Sachs, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 191, 104127.

Does Austerity Pay Off?, B. Born with G. Müller and J.Pfeifer, The Review of Economics and Statistics,  102(2): pp. 323–338.

Completing the Banking Union with a European deposit insurance scheme: who is afraid of cross-subsidization?, J. Carmassi, S. Dobkowitz, J. Evrard, L. Parisi, A. F. Silva and M. Wedow, Economic Policy, 35(101): pp. 41-95.

The College Wealth Divide: Education and Inequality in America, 1956-2016, M. Kuhn with A. Bartscher and M. Schularick, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, SSRN 3587685.

Who should you vote for? Empirical evidence from local governments, R. D. Gabriel, Portuguese Economic Journal, 19, pages 5–31(2020).

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis, Ò. Jordà, B. Richter, M. Schularick, and A. Taylor, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 88, Issue 1, pp. 260–286

Immunity, K. Reddy, M. Schularick, and V. Skreta, International Economic Review, 61(2), 531-564.

Solving heterogeneous agent models in discrete time with many idiosyncratic states by perturbation methods, Christian Bayer and Ralph Luetticke,  Quantitative Economics, 11, pp. 1253-1288.

The Formation of Prosociality: Causal Evidence on the Role of Social Environment, Pia Pinger with Thomas Deckers, Armin Falk, Fabian Kosse, and Hannah Schildberg-Hörisch, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 128, No. 2.

 

2019

Bargaining over Babies: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications, F. Kindermann with Matthias Doepke, American Economic Review, Vol. 109, No, 9.

Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default, D. Kuvshinov and K. Zimmermann, European Economic Review, 119(C): 1-21.

Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949-2016, M. Kuhn, M. Schularick and U. Steins, Journal of Political Economy, CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12218, forthcoming.

The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment, B. Born, G. J. Müller, M. Schularick, P. Sedláček, The Economic Journal, October 2019, 129(623): 2722–2744.

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015, Ò. Jordà, K. Knoll, D. Krushinov, M. Schularick and A. Taylor, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019, 134(3): 1125-1298.

The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments, Ò. Jordà, M. Schularick, and A. Taylor, Journal of Monetary Economics.

Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk, C. Bayer, R. Lütticke, L. Pham-Dao, and V. Tjaden, Econometrica, 2019, 87(1): 255-290.

Revisiting the Marshmallow Test: On the Interpretation of Replication Results, P. Pinger, A. Falk and F. Kosse, Psychological Science, forthcoming.

Time-Varying Business Volatility and the Price Setting of Firms, B. Born with Rüdiger Bachmann, Steffen Elstner and Christian Grimme, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 101, pp. 82-99.

 

2018

Paternal Grandfather’s Access to Food Predicts All-cause and Cancer Mortality in Grandsons, Pia Pinger with Vanda Aronsson, Gerard van den Berg, and Denny Vågerö, Nature Communications, 2018, 9: 5124.

Locus of Control and Consistent Investment Choices, P. Pinger with H. Schumacher and S. Schäfer, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2018, 75: 66–75.

Uncertainty and the Great Recession, B. Born with Sebastian Breuer and Steffen Elstner, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 80, 5 (2018).

Household Debt and Crisis of Confidence, T. Hintermaier with W. Koeniger, Quantitative Economics, Volume 9, Issue 3, November 2018, Pages 1489-1542.

A new IV Approach for Estimating the Efficacy of Macroprudential Measures, I. Schnabel with Niklas Gadatsch and Lukas Mann, Economics Letters, 2018, 168, 107-109.

 

2017

Earnings losses and labor mobility over the life cycle, M. Kuhn with Philip Jung, available as CESifo Working Paper No. 6552, IZA Discussion Paper No. 6835 or as CEPR Discussion Paper 11572 Forthcoming at the Journal of the European Economic Association.

Families and Social Security, F. Kindermann with H. Fehr and M. Kallweit , European Economic Review, vol. 91, 30-56.

Life in Shackles? The Quantitative Implications of Reforming the Educational Loan System, F. Kindermann with Ben Heijdra and Laurie Reijnders, Review of Economic Dynamics, 25, 37-57, 2017.

Fixed on Flexible – Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession, K. Kuester with G. Corsetti and G. Mueller, IMF Economic Review.

The Fiscal Mix in the Euro-area Crisis — Dimensions and a Model-Based Assessment of Effects, K. Kuester with Giovanni Callegari and Francesco Drudi. Economic Policy, vol 32 (89), pp. 127-169.

No Price Like Home, M. Schularick with Katharina Knoll and Thomas Steger, American Economic Review.

 

2016

Financial Sector Reform After the Crisis: Has Anything Happened?, I. Schnabel with A. Schäfer and B. Weder di Mauro, Review of Finance, 2016, 20(1), 77-125.

Large Open Economies and Fixed Costs of Capital Adjustment, C. Bayer with V. Tjaden, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pp. 125-146.

Debt portfolios and homestead exemptions, T. Hintermaier with W. Koeniger, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 8, pp. 103-141.

2013 Update on the U.S. Earnings, Income and Wealth Distributional Feats: A View from Macroeconomic Modelers, M. Kuhn with J. Ríos-Rull , Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review.

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences, M. Schularick with Ò. Jordá and A. Taylor, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 14 (1), 45–79.

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles, M. Schularick with Ò. Jordà and A. Taylor, Economic Policy, vol. 31 (85), 107–152.

Transgenerational Effects of Childhood Conditions on Third Generation Health and Education Outcomes, P. Pinger with G. van den Berg, Economics and Human Biology, 23: 103-120.

Instrumental Variable Estimation of the Causal Effect of Hunger Early in Life on Health Later in Life, P. Pinger with G. van den Berg and J. Schoch, The Economic Journal, 126 (3): 465–506.

 

2015

Household Debt and Crises of Confidence, T. Hintermaier with W. Koeniger, Quantitative Economics, Vol. 9/3.

Happiness and the Persistence of Income Shocks, C. Bayer with F. Juessen, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 7(4), 160-187.

The New Actors of Macroprudential Supervision in Germany and Europe – A Critical Evaluation, I. Schnabel with Elke Gurlit, Journal of Banking Law and Banking, vol. 6, 349-362.

Taxing Capital Along the Transition – Not A Bad Idea After All?, F. Kindermann with H. Fehr, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 51, 64-77.

Household Formation, Female Labor Supply and Savings, F. Kindermann with H. Fehr and M. Kallweit, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 118, 868–911.

Earnings-Related Pension Schemes and Human Capital Formation, F. Kindermann, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, vol. 14(1), 19-54.

Optimal Labor-Market Policy in Recessions, K. Kuester with P. Jung, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 7(2), 124-56.

Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity, K. Kuester with J. Fernández-Villaverde, P. A. Guerón-Quintana, J. Rubio-Ramírez, American Economic Review, vol. 105(11), 3352-84.

Should Unemployment Insurance be Asset-Tested?, M. Kuhn with S. Koehne, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3).

Optimal Taxation in a Habit Formation Economy, M. Kuhn with S. Koehne, Journal of Public Economics, vol. 122, 31-39.

Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement and the Macroeconomy, M. Kuhn, with T. Krebs and M. Wright, American Economic Review, Vol. 105(11), 3223-72.

Betting the House, M. Schularick with Ò. Jordà and A. Taylor, Journal of International Economics, vol 104(4), 1392-1416.

Leveraged Bubbles, M. Schularick with Ò. Jordà and A. Taylor, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 76(S), 1-20.

 

2014

Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle, C. Bayer with R. Bachmann, American Economic Review, vol. 104(4), 1392-1416.

Sovereign Risk and Belief-driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area, K. Kuester with G. Corsetti, A. Meier, and G. Mueller, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 61(S), 53-73.

Bank Bonuses and Bail-outs, I. Schnabel with H. Hakenes, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol 46(1), 259-288.

Policy Risk and the Business Cycle, B. Born with J. Pfeifer, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 68, pp. 68-85.

 

Working Papers

2021

Vaccine-Preventable Childhood Disease and Adult Human Capital – Evidence from 1967 Measles Eradication Campaign in the United States, S. Dobkowitz, P. Barteska and M. Rieser, University of Bonn, unpublished manuscript. 

Income risk and consumer bankruptcy over the business cycle, L. Dähne and ter Steege, L., University of Bonn, unpublished manuscript.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Interest Rate Spreads, K. Arvai and R. D. Gabriel, University of Bonn, unpublished manuscript.

Redistribution and the transition to sustainable production, S. Dobkowitz, University of Bonn.

The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run, D. Kuvshinov and K. Zimmermann, CEPR, Discussion paper No. 14468.

The surprising Power of the Cap: Unemployment Insurance and Worker Heterogeneity, Simon Heiler, University of Bonn, Technical Report.

Monetary Policy and racial inequality, A. K. Bartscher, M. Kuhn, M. Schularick and P. Wachtel, CEPR, Discussion Paper 15734. 

How bad is labor market concentration?: Evidence from soviet (urban) satellites, N. Zhuravleva, University of Bonn

It takes two to borrow: The effects of the equal credit opportunity act on homeownership and mortgage dept of married couples, A. K. Bartscher, University of Bonn, Job Market Paper.

Bubbly Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Fluctuations, D. Zhang and H. Tang, SSRN Working Paper.

The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy, Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14883.

The co-movement puzzle, D. Kuvshinov, University of Bonn

The effects of government spending in the Eurozone, Ana Sofia Pessoa, Ricardo Duque Gabriel and Mathias Klein, Sveriges Riksbank, Working Paper No. 400.

Hiring stimulus and precautionary savings in a liquidity trap, R. Domínguez-Díaz, ECONtribute: Markets & Public Policy, Discussion Paper No. 072. 

Quantifying the Federal Reserve’s Objectives Using a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model, S. Ou and D. Zhang, SSRN Working Paper.

Term Structure, Forecast Revision, and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy, D. Zhang, European Economic Association. 

The Political Economy of Currency Unions, Kai Arvai, University of Bonn, Working Paper. 

 

2020

Consumption inequality in the digital age, K. Arvai and K. Mann, unpublished manuscript, University of Bonn. 

Adopting the Euro: A Synthetic Control Approach, A. S. Pessoa and R. D. Gabriel, University of Bonn.

The Expected Return on Risky Assets: International Long-run Evidence, D. Kuvshinov and K. Zimmermann, CEPR, Discussion paper No. 15610.

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy, O. Jordà, M. Kornejew, M. Schularick und A. M. Taylor, NBER, Working paper 28197.

Federal unemployment reinsurance and local labor-market policies, M. Ignaszak, P. Jung and K. Kuester, CEPR, Discussion paper No. 15465.

Job stability, earnings dynamics, and life-cycle savings, M. Kuhn and G. Ploj, CEPR, Discussion Paper DP15460.

Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk, D. Zhang, F. Loria and C. Matthes, FEDS Working Paper. 

The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?, Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke, and Gernot J. Müller, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14600.

The Profit Credit Cycle, Björn Richter and Kaspar Zimmermann, University of Bonn, Working Paper.

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered, Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-11.

The Short-Run Macro Implications of School and Child-Care Closures, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Moritz Kuhn, and Michèle Tertilt, IZA Discussion Paper No. 13353.

Bank capital and the European recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, Moritz Schularick, Sascha Steffen, and Tobias Tröger, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14927.

Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016, Alina Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. SteinsCEPR Discussion Paper No. 14667.

Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area, M. Gnewuch, University of Bonn.

Intergenerational Ties and Case Fatality Rates: A Cross-Country Analysis, Christian Bayer, and Moritz Kuhn, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14519.

Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles, Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14364.

 

2019

Three essays in empirical macroeconomics and finance, P. Liu, University of Bonn, PhD Thesis.

Three Essays in Macroeconomics: Institutions and Housing in a historical perspective, Martin Dohmen, University of Bonn, PhD Thesis.

Essays in Macroeconomic Theory, Branislav Albert, University of Bonn, PhD Thesis.

Differences in Euro-Area Household Finances and their Relevance for Monetary-Policy Transmission, T. Hintermaier with Winfried Koeniger, IZA DP No. 12743.

Exportweltmeister: The Low Returns on Germany’s Capital Export, Franziska Hünnekes, Moritz Schularick, Christoph Trebesch, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 13863.

Which Ladder to Climb? Decomposing Life Cycle Wage Dynamics, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn (July2019), IZA DP No. 12473.

Stable genius? The macroeconomic impact of Trump, Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick and Petr Sedlacek, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 13798

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle, Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor, NBER Working Paper No. 25653.

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability, 1870-2015, Kaspar Zimmermann, SSRN Working Paper No.3322331.

 

2018

What hides behind the German labor market miracle? Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics, Benjamin Hartung, Philip Jung, Moritz Kuhn (2018), CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13328.

Misallocation: Markups and Technology, C. Bayer with A. Mecikovsky and M. Meier, CEPR DP No. 12727.

The Term Structure of Redenomination Risk, C. Bayer with Chi Kim and Alexander Kriwoluzky, May 2018, CEPR DP No. 12965.

 

2017

The Great American Debt Boom, 1949-2013, M. Kuhn with Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. Steins, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 

Banks’ Trading after the Lehman Crisis – The Role of Unconventional Monetary Policy, I. Schnabel with N. Podlich and J. Tischer, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No. 19/2017.

What Drives the Sovereign-Bank Nexus?, I. Schnabel with U. Schüwer, Conference Paper. Vereins für Socialpolitik 2017.

 

2016

Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy, K. Kuester with N. Gornemann and M. Nakajima, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1167.

Towards Understanding Differences in European Household Finances, T. Hintermaier with W. Koeniger, ADEMU Working Paper, No. 2016/017.

 

2015

Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives, I. Schnabel with M. Brunnermeier, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10528.

Financial Fragmentation and Economic Growth in Europe, I. Schnabel with C. Seckinger, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 10805.

Research Areas

The RTG studies the implications of rising inequality for the macroeconomy and macroeconomic policy. Within this confine, the RTG studies topics that require a varied skill set. The topics fall into one of four research areas:

Research Area A, Dimensions of inequality studies the facts on inequality, relying on the group members’ experience with a wide range of micro data.

Research Area B, Inequality and the business cycle studies to what extend inequality affects business cycle dynamics, making use of the groups’ expertise in heterogeneous agent modeling.

Research Area C, Inequality and financial fragility studies the empirical link between inequality, household balance sheets and financial crises.

Research Area D, Inequality and macroeconomic policies studies the policy implications. Building on the strengths of the group, the focus will be on monetary policy, labor-market policy, and fiscal policy.